Canberra is Growing

Written By Ben Brown
artistic version of a satellite image of canberra's parliament house and surroundings

Canberra's population
is experiencing
consistent growth.

The city's economic expansion is concentrated in key sectors, including public administration, professional services, and construction. The ACT government's future strategies are focused on fostering a knowledge-based economy, improving liveability, and achieving sustainability goals.

    • Overall Growth: Canberra's population has been consistently growing. In 2024, the estimated resident population was 481,677, and it increased by 1.4% in the year leading up to the December quarter of 2024.

    • Historical Trends: The city's population has seen significant growth spurts. For example, between 1960 and 1971, the population tripled from 50,000 to 146,000. In more recent times, the annual growth rate has been over 1%.

    • Future Projections: Forecasts predict that the population of the Canberra Region Joint Organisation area will increase by over 86,560 people (23.18% growth) between 2021 and 2046.

  • The primary drivers of Canberra's population growth are not from natural increase (births minus deaths) or from locals staying, but from migration.

    • Overseas Migration is the Largest Contributor: Data from the ACT Treasury and the Australian Bureau of Statistics consistently shows that net overseas migration is the largest contributor to Canberra's population growth. In 2017-18, over half (54%) of the ACT's population increase was due to overseas migration. In the year leading up to the December quarter of 2024, net overseas migration was the "largest contributor to growth."

    • Natural Increase is a Smaller Factor: While natural increase (births less deaths) contributes positively to growth, its impact is smaller than overseas migration. In 2017-18, natural increase accounted for 40% of the growth, significantly less than the 54% from overseas migration. More recent data confirms this trend.

    • Interstate Migration is often Negative: Canberra often experiences a net outflow of interstate migration, meaning more people move out of the ACT to other parts of Australia than move in from other states. In the year ending December quarter 2024, net interstate migration "detracted from growth."

  • The high rate of migration and the frequent net loss of interstate residents suggest a transient population.

    • High Population Mobility: The data indicates that Canberra's population is not as sedentary as one might expect. A lower rate of people moved from overseas compared to the rest of Australia, but a higher rate moved from elsewhere in Australia. This points to a dynamic population where people are frequently moving in and out, rather than staying in one place for multiple generations.

    • Government Focus on Skilled Migrants: The ACT government's skilled migration program, with its focus on attracting skilled workers for temporary and permanent visas (subclasses 491 and 190), further reinforces the idea that the city's growth strategy relies heavily on attracting talent from outside the region.

    • A Diverse and Transient Population: Census data shows that a significant portion of Canberra's population is born overseas. In 2021, 32.5% of Canberra's population was born overseas, with a large majority coming from Asia and Europe. This diversity, while a strength, also points to a population that is not primarily made up of long-standing, multi-generational families.

  • I.          Public Administration and Safety

    This is the single largest sector in Canberra and a primary driver of the city's economy. The presence of the federal government, the Department of Defence, and other national agencies means a large portion of the workforce is employed in this industry. A significant part of Canberra's economic activity and growth is directly related to government spending and policy implementation.

    II.          Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

    This sector is one of the fastest-growing and most significant contributors to Canberra's economy. It includes a wide range of services such as IT and cyber security, research and development, management consulting, and legal and accounting services. This growth is often intertwined with the public sector, as many private businesses provide specialized services to government departments and defense agencies.

    III.          Construction

    Canberra's consistent population growth and urban development have fueled a robust construction sector. This includes large-scale government-funded infrastructure projects, commercial property development, and a strong residential building market. The sector is a major employer and a key contributor to the city's economic output.

    IV.          Health Care and Social Assistance

    The health sector is a major employer and a significant area of growth. As the population expands and ages, there is increasing demand for health and social services. This includes hospitals, aged care facilities, and a variety of community services.

    V.          Education and Research

    Canberra is a hub for higher education and research, with institutions like the Australian National University (ANU) and the University of Canberra. This sector attracts students and researchers from around the world, contributing to the city's "knowledge capital." It also generates significant economic activity through related services and innovation.

    VI.          Emerging and Niche Sectors

    Canberra's economy is also diversifying into high-tech and niche areas, including:

    • Cyber and Quantum Technology: Canberra is recognized as a leader in cyber security, with a concentration of government agencies and private firms in this field.

    • Space Technology: The city has a long history with space research and is home to facilities like the Canberra Deep Space Communication Complex, with a growing number of businesses in this sector.

    • Agri-technology: Leveraging its research and educational institutions, Canberra is developing expertise in agricultural and food technology.

    • Renewable Energy and Climate Action: The ACT government's ambitious climate targets have fostered growth in industries related to renewable energy and sustainable technologies.

    While other sectors like retail, accommodation, and food services are also important to the local economy, their growth can be more volatile and is often tied to the fortunes of the larger, more dominant sectors.

  • The government's strategy is built on three main missions:

    • A City of Wellbeing and Liveability: The plan aims to make Canberra an attractive place to live and work by focusing on social advancement and community wellbeing. This includes initiatives to improve the affordability and accessibility of housing.

    • Towards a Net-Zero City: There is a strong emphasis on environmental responsibility, with plans to electrify public and community housing by 2030, phase out gas appliances, and support the uptake of electric vehicles.

    • Knowledge-Based Economic Growth: This mission centres on fostering an economy driven by inclusive innovation and responsible investment. The government aims to build on Canberra's strengths in technology, research, and education to create new jobs and opportunities.

    Specific Initiatives and Investments

    The ACT government's 2024–25 Budget provides a snapshot of current investments that support these plans:

    • Housing: The budget includes over $285 million over four years for housing initiatives, such as increasing the Home Buyer Concession Scheme income eligibility threshold and extending stamp duty concessions for first homebuyers.

    • Health and Education: Significant funding has been allocated to health infrastructure and services (over $920 million) and education and skills development (over $100 million).

    • Business Support: The government continues to support local businesses through targeted programs like the Social Enterprises Grant program and the Priority Investment Program.

    Regional and Collaborative Plans

    The ACT government also collaborates with the New South Wales government on the Canberra Region Economic Development Strategy (CREDS). This strategy focuses on a coordinated approach to activate economic opportunities across the region, with key pillars including:

    • Growth and Diversification: Supporting both established and emerging industries.

    • Liveability: Improving the quality of life and housing affordability.

    • Skills and Innovation: Promoting the development of a skilled workforce and fostering innovation.

  • ACT Treasury

    Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

    ACT Government, Chief Minister, Treasury and Economic Development Directorate. (2025). Economic Development. Retrieved from https://www.act.gov.au/directorates-and-agencies/chief-minister-treasury-and-economic-development-directorate/economic-development

    ACT Government. (2025). Key Sectors. Retrieved from https://canberra.com.au/business/sector-profiles

    ACT Government. (2025, September 8). New Industry Action Plans for Canberra's future workforce. Retrieved from https://www.cmtedd.act.gov.au/open_government/inform/act_government_media_releases/chris-steel-mla-media-releases/2024/new-industry-action-plans-for-canberras-future-workforce

    ACT Government. (2025). Canberra Region Economic Development Strategy (CREDS). Available at: https://www.act.gov.au/open/canberra-region-economic-development-strategy-creds

    ACT Government. (2025). CBR Switched On: ACT's Economic Development Priorities. Available at: https://www.act.gov.au/open/cbr-switched-on-acts-economic-development-priorities

    Canberra Business Chamber. (2024). Business in Canberra 2024 Research Report. Retrieved from https://www.canberrabusiness.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Business-in-Canberra-2024-Research-Report4.pdf

    GrantReady. (2024). ACT Budget 2024-2025. Available at: https://grantready.com.au/act-budget-2024-2025/

    Hawker Britton. (2024). ACT Budget 2024-25. Available at: https://www.hawkerbritton.com/blog/2024/07/05/act-budget-2024-25/

    Region (2025). Here's why it's so tough to run a business in Canberra right now. Available at: https://region.com.au/heres-why-its-so-tough-to-run-a-business-in-canberra-right-now/899718/

    RSM Global. (2025). Canberra rising: Shaping a connected and sustainable capital. Retrieved from https://www.rsm.global/australia/reports/leading-cities/canberra

Ben Brown
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